1. Global trade dynamics

WTO raises global trade growth forecast for 2024: The latest forecast of the World Trade Organization (WTO) shows that global merchandise trade volume will grow by 2.6% in 2024 (previously 1.7%), mainly due to supply chain recovery and consumer demand resilience. However, geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures remain potential threats.

The Red Sea crisis continues to affect shipping: Houthi armed attacks have caused a 40% drop in traffic through the Suez Canal, and some routes have detoured around the Cape of Good Hope, pushing up freight rates on Asia-Europe routes (up about 200% from the end of 2023). The global supply chain may face a new round of delays.

2. China's foreign trade data and policies

China's exports in April exceeded expectations: In terms of RMB, exports in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year (previous value -3.8%), and exports of mechanical and electrical products and new energy vehicles performed strongly; but exports to the United States and Europe are still under pressure.

Cross-border e-commerce pilot expansion: The State Council has added 17 cities as cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones, bringing the total number of pilots to 165, which will simplify customs clearance procedures and support the construction of overseas warehouses.

RMB settlement is promoted: China and Saudi Arabia completed the first RMB loan cooperation, and the cross-border use of RMB in the Middle East accelerated.

3. Regional market trends

ASEAN has become a trade highlight: RCEP dividends continue to be released, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 7.4% in the first quarter of 2024, and electronic components and green products are in strong demand.

US tariff policy on China: The Biden administration announced that it would maintain additional tariffs on China, while exempting some medical products, and tariffs on electric vehicles may rise from 25% to 100%.

EU carbon tariff (CBAM) transition period implementation: The carbon border adjustment mechanism launched in October 2023 entered the data reporting stage, and the export costs of industries such as steel and aluminum increased.

4. Industry focus

New energy exports surged: China's photovoltaic module and lithium battery exports increased by 34.9% and 53.7% respectively in the first quarter, but faced pressure from "anti-subsidy" investigations in Europe and the United States.

Transformation of traditional manufacturing: Textile, furniture and other industries expand Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern markets through the "cross-border e-commerce + overseas warehouse" model.

5. Risk Warning

Geopolitical uncertainty: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East may further disrupt energy and food trade.

Escalation of trade barriers: The United States and Europe have strengthened their "de-risking" policies and increased restrictions on China's new energy, semiconductor and other fields.