2025 Global Trade & Geopolitical News

1. U.S.-China Tech War Escalates: Expanded Semiconductor Bans

In March 2025, the U.S. added 5 Chinese AI chip firms to its entity list, cutting access to American tech. China retaliated with a cybersecurity review of Micron Technology and pledged $500B to boost domestic production.

2. EU Carbon Tax Sparks Trade Disputes

The EU’s full enforcement of CBAM in 2025 triggered WTO lawsuits from China and India, who called it "green protectionism." Export costs for steel and aluminum may rise 15%-20%.

3. RMB Internationalization Accelerates

Saudi Arabia’s RMB oil deal with China (Jan 2025) pushed RMB’s global payment share to 6.8% (vs. 3.2% in 2023). Fed rate hikes pressured EM currencies, but the RMB stabilized at 7.3-7.6.

4. Red Sea Crisis Disrupts Global Logistics

Houthi attacks cut Suez Canal traffic by 40%, boosting China-Europe rail freight demand by 300%. Marine insurance rates surged 5-fold.

5. RCEP Deepens Asia-Pacific Supply Chain Integration

Phase II of RCEP tariff cuts (2025) boosted electronics trade among China-Japan-South Korea by 25%, with Southeast Asia as the top beneficiary.