Trade barriers to China continue to increase, supply chain "de risking" is accelerating, and local and nearshore production has become a strategic focus.

1、 Policy and Trade Dynamics

Further escalation of tariff barriers against China

Prediction News Title: "The United States Considers Raising the Tariff Rate on Bearing Products from China from the Current Average of 7.5% to 25%"

Summary: Based on the review of "Section 301", the Office of the United States Trade Representative is evaluating a proposal to significantly increase tariffs on Chinese mechanical basic components (including specific categories of bearings), aimed at protecting domestic manufacturing and addressing the so-called "overcapacity" issue. This move is expected to significantly increase the terminal cost of Chinese bearing products and weaken their market competitiveness.

The rules of origin are becoming stricter, and supply chain reviews have become the norm

Prediction news headline: "US Customs crack down on 'origin washing' behavior, multiple companies fined for evading bearing anti-dumping duties"

Summary: The US Customs and Border Protection has increased its scrutiny of Chinese bearings transported through third countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. Require importers to provide more detailed proof of the source and processing value of raw materials to prevent the evasion of anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

The Indirect Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on the Industrial Chain

Prediction News Title: "Investment in Local Supply Chain of Electric Vehicle Bearings Boosts under IRA Act Incentives"

Summary: In order to meet the "localization" requirements of the Inflation Reduction Act for tax credits for electric vehicles, major automakers and first tier suppliers are actively seeking high-precision, low-noise electric vehicle bearing suppliers in North America. This provides new market opportunities for Chinese bearing companies that have set up factories in Mexico.