Can the Trump-Putin summit bring about peace? What are the prospects for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine?

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has raged for nearly three and a half years, has finally seen the two leaders meet face-to-face. On August 15th, in Alaska, Trump and Putin will discuss a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Conventional wisdom suggests that a face-to-face meeting between the two leaders implies a certain level of private consensus. However, this Trump-Putin meeting is less than optimistic. Even the usually confident Trump tempered expectations, calling it an "exploratory meeting" with mixed results.

Before the meeting, Trump proposed a "territorial swap" proposal, hoping for a swift ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, allowing the United States to quickly extricate itself from the bottomless pit of Ukraine. Specifically, the United States envisioned a three-step approach: first, privately communicate with Russia; second, pressure Russia and Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire; and finally, hold Europe accountable. However, Ukraine's absence from the negotiating table has left it dissatisfied. Trump previously suggested he might invite Zelenskyy to participate in trilateral talks after the Trump-Putin meeting, but Putin declined, and Zelenskyy has yet to receive an invitation.

Trump proposed a "territorial swap" proposal, demanding that both Russia and Ukraine cede some land. If they refuse, the US will impose sanctions and other pressure measures. Recently, the US imposed sanctions on Russia and threatened to deploy nuclear submarines. Regarding Ukraine, the US is applying pressure by halting financial and arms aid. However, this proposal has been opposed by both Russia and Ukraine. Russia is unwilling to concede existing gains, while Ukraine is unwilling to cede territory. Zelenskyy has always upheld the principle of "territorial integrity" and cannot accept territorial concessions.

Furthermore, Europe is anxious about the omission of Ukraine from the Trump-Putin meeting, fearing being marginalized at the US-Russia summit. European countries have strongly demanded Ukraine's participation in the negotiations, calling for the protection of both European and Ukrainian interests and promising increased military support and sanctions against Russia. However, Europe's support is limited by its own capabilities. If the US stops contributing financially to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European countries will struggle to fill this gap.

The Trump administration's choices regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict are primarily driven by immediate US interests, rather than the fundamental interests of both Russia and Ukraine. Simply pushing the US proposal will likely fail to achieve a ceasefire and restore peace between Russia and Ukraine. To completely resolve the Ukrainian crisis, it is necessary to take into account the positions and demands of Ukraine, Europe and Russia.